16 October 2016

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27 September 2016

A Gentleman in Moscow by Amor Towles

  • Absolutely loved this book. Highly, highly, highly recommended.
  • Goodreads description here
  • Like Stoner by John Williams (another equally good book). These books are all about being stoic (= the endurance of pain or hardship without the display of feelings and without complaint).
  • 6 stars out of 5 for the Moscow Gentleman. Must try to read his other book Rules of Civility.

14 September 2016

GBP/USD : Very Long Term View

  • Take a look at the monthly chart of cable going back to 1984 (which is the furthest back I can get on Saxo). Chart low 1.0362, pre-Plaza Accord.
  • The interesting chart point I want to highlight here is the subprime crisis low of 1.3501 at end 2008 (wholesale flight to quality USD+USTs). Brexit has taken us and kept us below that level for 2-3 months now. 
  • To date, Brexit has been mostly just talk and actual permanent impact the UK economy has not even begun yet (eg what happens when all the financial institutions move to other parts of Europe, etc).  Chart suggests much much downside potential for cable and suggestive of serious economic weakness when actual Brexit implementation occurs.
  • Ideal long term short trade location nearby.

28 June 2016

EUR/USD : Better Short Than Cable

  • Attached EUR/USD long term (monthly) chart. Very bearish formation, mega top formed, neckline (1.2120) broken, currently in a triangle consolidation holding pattern, awaiting developments to drive an eventual downside break towards the historical all time lows. Yuuuge trade in the making.
  • Chart is telling me that Brexit spillover effects (into EU) will be bigger than Brexit itself. Selling cable itself is not necessarily the best Brexit trade in the longer term. Shorting EUR/USD will be the better trade eventually.
  • Triangle boundaries for this month are at appx 1.16 and 1.06. Would appear to be quite a few more months before a triangle breakout trade occurs. Must monitor this.
  • EUR/GBP chart does not suggest the above conclusion .. yet. 

Gold : Chart Update

  • Long GLD ETF at 1097 equivalent, took some profit at 1308.
  • Longer term, expect gold to trade much higher by sheer force of fundamentals. But immediately, expect strong resistance at the downtrend line around 1360-1370 [high on Brexit results day was 1358]. Market must be very long by now as every analyst and his dog seem to be saying to buy.
  • This is one for patient periodic accumulation on large dips.

Brexit 2.0 : Iceland National Football Team


GEZ7 : Chart Update - So Far So Good

  • Pleased to report that position/risk sizing was spot on, thus enabling me to survive the pre-/post- Brexit huge range [98.90 - 99.27] day on 24Jun16 with long position intact.
  • Managed to take profit on half of position at 99.24, and re-established at 99.13. So, still long 100% deep in the money.
  • Triangle strategy is going well. Target 99.47, which is below current 3-mth Libor [0.6271 fix yesterday] ie triangle is seeing a Fed rate cut ahead ie much more drastic Brexit fallout to come.

11 June 2016

GEZ7 : Upside Triangle Breakout

  • Closed the week at 98.99. Fresh upside break.
  • Breakout point = 98.92.
  • Triangle points = 98.61 and 99.16 ie objective 55 tics.
  • Upside objective = 99.47. That's massive.
  • Daily chart (not shown) at upper end of rectangular consolidation so this may not perform immediately. Unless we get unexpectedly bad news to drive a strong leg up. Must be patient.
  • 75% loaded up on long ED risk.

04 June 2016

GEZ7 : Pre- Triangle Breakout

  • Been dabbling with this quietly on the side for the past few months. 
  • Pre-trade : managed to buy 1 risk unit at 98.705 last week, purely bottom picking on flimsy gut feel.
  • Missed trade : Thereafter, was paying 98.72 after market had run up for a bit. Emotionally ruing my lack of conviction and aggression in chasing (73 low). Objectively, it was the correct decision (no strong grounds to increase risk).
  • Real trade : Triangle continuation pattern apparent on chart now. Upside break point at 98.94. Mentally file aside the pre-trade with deep in the money stop. The real trade begins on break of 98.94 with 2 risk units. Shoot for 99.27 previous high as initial target.

08 May 2016

Bocelli/Ranieri : Nessun Dorma

Truly magical moments in sporting history.

01 May 2016

Gold : Consolidation Over

  • Since the 1285 high made on 11Mar, gold has been consolidating earlier sharp gains from the 1046 low.
  • Finally broken the 1285 high last Friday (1296 high, close 1293). Onwards and upwards from here.
  • Significant previous highs are 1307, 1345, 1392 and 1434. Expect at least a couple of these, if not all, to be taken out in the following weeks. Certainly we can call an end of the downtrend now. Hang on to those longs.
  • Partially makes up for missing the USD/JPY.

28 April 2016

Claudio Ranieri : My Hero

Claudio - I hope you do it. Thank you for the inspiration.

29 March 2016

USD/JPY : Getting Close

  • Trading around 113.70 currently.
  • Watchful mode here, attractive shorting opportunity akan datang. It will come, be patient.
  • Need to revise the parameters from the previous post. Think we can get levels closer to 116 to sell.

17 March 2016

USD/JPY : Confirmed Trend Reversal

  • Long term USD/JPY chart looks awful. SHS top at 125.86, NL 116.13, downside objective 106.40. Uptrend reversal confirmed.
  • Late making this post. Should have called this after Feb's closing at 112.68. Nevertheless, will keep a close eye on this and initiate fresh short on any rally towards the old neckline at 116.13. The market will usually always give you a 2nd chance on patterns such as this. Eg of possible scenario = frenzy on buildup towards next Fed hike.
  • Good risk/reward if can get set say, above 114, stop above 116, target 106.40. Patience and discipline required. If the market doesn't give me a good entry point and I miss the move, then so be it.
  • I think the Yellen Fed has cocked this up big time by starting the hike cycle too late.