14 September 2016

GBP/USD : Very Long Term View

  • Take a look at the monthly chart of cable going back to 1984 (which is the furthest back I can get on Saxo). Chart low 1.0362, pre-Plaza Accord.
  • The interesting chart point I want to highlight here is the subprime crisis low of 1.3501 at end 2008 (wholesale flight to quality USD+USTs). Brexit has taken us and kept us below that level for 2-3 months now. 
  • To date, Brexit has been mostly just talk and actual permanent impact the UK economy has not even begun yet (eg what happens when all the financial institutions move to other parts of Europe, etc).  Chart suggests much much downside potential for cable and suggestive of serious economic weakness when actual Brexit implementation occurs.
  • Ideal long term short trade location nearby.

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